A recent report by KPMG says that a sharp increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for delivery vehicles could be around the corner. While consumers shop online more and more, retailers will look to reduce delivery costs. Autonomous delivery vehicles, especially for last-mile deliveries, are expected to help by being cheaper to produce, fuel, and maintain. How many VMT gets accumulated, however, depends on how much of a decline in consumer shopping trips occurs.


U.S. one-way shopping trips (billions), 2017-20401,2,3,4

A 30-50 percent decline in shopping-related travel could displace between 18 and 30 billion shopping trips in the U.S. by 2040.


U.S. incremental package delivery VMT (billions), 2017-20401

  • Scenario 1A: 30 percent decline in shopping trips
  • Scenario 2B: 50 percent decline in shopping trips

A 30-50 percent decline in shopping trips could generate between 23 and 78 billion incremental VMT for package delivery by 2040.


Source: KPMG, "Autonomy delivers: An oncoming revolution in the movement of goods"

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