Eighty-four percent of global respondents and 83% in the U.S. expect autonomous vehicles to be introduced in “islands of autonomy,” metropolitan markets with unique mixes of consumer living, working, and travel patterns which will drive requirements for locally tailored delivery services according to the 2019 KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey.

The KPMG Research, which polled nearly 1000 executives (including 110 in the U.S.) from leading automotive companies, found that 64% of global OEMs and 63% in the U.S. expect self-driving cars to be fully functional in mature markets by 2030. The research also revealed that 73% of global OEMs and 84% of U.S. respondents say that within the next decade, traditional public transport will be replaced by new on-demand autonomous services.

“For OEMs, the question has gone from if autonomous vehicles will revolutionize the automotive and transportation sectors to where and how,” said Gary Silberg, KPMG’s Automotive sector leader. “A trillion dollar plus market is emerging around driverless vehicles coupled with mobility services, and for OEMs, the race is on. Those who innovate successfully combined with the emergence of smart cities will be the powerhouse players in this new automotive ecosystem.”

In conjunction with the executive survey, KPMG also surveyed 2000 consumers from 40 countries (178 from the U.S.) to compare their perspectives. When it comes to consumer expectations for the roll out of autonomous vehicles, there were significant differences between global consumers and those based in the U.S.

Eighty three percent of global consumers believe in the islands of autonomy, which closely mirrors global OEMs; however, only 58% of U.S. respondents agree, compared to 83% of U.S. OEMs.

When asked if delivery services and online shopping have changed their mobility patterns and needs over the last few years, 85% of global respondents said it had a little bit or completely, compared to just 64% of U.S. respondents.  

“Autonomous delivery vehicles will take trends begun by e-commerce and drive them forward at an unprecedented rate,” said Tom Mayor, KPMG’s strategy lead for Industrial Manufacturing. “Consumers will reduce their personal miles traveled for shopping as the delivery of goods will be requested with the push of a button and executed as quickly as the same hour. The result will be a monumental change in consumer behavior—and a global transformation for the retail, automobile, and transportation industries.”