Annual sales of highly automated commercial vehicles not expected to exceed 1% until 2028
According to a new report from Navigant Research, annual sales of highly automated commercial vehicles are not expected to exceed 1% until 2028.
The report, "Automated Commercial Vehicles," analyzes the state of the automated medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle market, providing global market forecasts, segmented by vehicle class and region, through 2030.
“Automated technologies can provide many benefits for the commercial vehicle sector, but challenges such as advancing technological abilities, overreliance on partially automated systems, regulatory environments, and public perception will all need to be managed moving forward,” said William Drier, Research Analyst at Navigant Research.
According to the report, once challenges are overcome, the most substantial benefit from ADAS is the potential increase in safety it can provide through features such as automatic emergency braking, lane departure warning, and lane keeping assist. There is also the potential for fuel efficiency gains through platooning in the heavy-duty long-haul truck sector. Additionally, higher levels of automation could eventually reduce labor costs by replacing some of the labor while providing downward price pressure on the demand for labor in the rest of the market.
While ADAS and ADS are fledgling markets, Navigant Research anticipates growth—an 11.0% global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2019-2030 for commercial vehicles capable of automation at SAE International Levels 1-2 (L1-L2) and a 90.4% global CAGR for commercial vehicles capable of SAE L3-L5. While this growth is expected to be rapid once technology is fully developed, sales volumes for L3-L5 will remain relatively low through 2030 due to late adoption and deployment and the long lifespan of commercial vehicles.
The study provides an overview of the new and established key players operating in the market. The report also explores the potential opportunities for growth and development, as well as the challenges to market expansion of ADAS and ADS. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.