Frost & Sullivan's recent analysis, Global Autonomous Driving (AD) Industry Outlook, 2019, highlights key market and technology trends shaping future prospects. On the business front, the research dives deeper into the impact of autonomy, focusing on ways to monetize and personalize data as the industry evolves. On the technology front, the study focuses on developments required at the platform level to add redundancies, fuse sensory data, and build the necessary computational ecosystem. Along with trends, the outlook forecasts share of vehicles by levels of autonomy.
According to the report, the year 2018 saw technological advancements in the AD market with a focus on shared mobility platforms, consolidation of electrical/electronic (E/E) architecture, and greater integration of AI in every aspect of AD. The report states that in 2019, the industry is witnessing significant progress in driverless technology, with developments in enhanced sensor solutions, L2+ deployment, and tele-operations. Developing and deploying L4 and L5 vehicles will take time; hence, L2+ features are expected to be pushed by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and Tier 1 suppliers to add to the value proposition in the ADAS market. By 2030, one in four cars sold (18 million) globally is expected to be automated (L3 and above), with L4 leading the growth.
"Sensor fusion will be a major aspect of autonomous vehicle development. The transition from discrete sensor processing to sensor fusion will be through either raw sensors or smart sensors based on E/E architecture," said Ayan Biswas, Mobility Senior Research Analyst, Frost & Sullivan. "Meanwhile, the introduction of L2+ and L3 features will create opportunities for the integration of multicore advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) domain controller. This will reduce the architectural complexity and weight on the chassis by decreasing the amount of wiring and facilitating high-speed communication and data transmission.
"AD will not only focus on ways to generate revenues through new downstream services, it will also affect traditional business models with the adoption of mobility platforms. The industry is expected to shift from ownership to usership, as it progresses toward L5 autonomy," noted Biswas. "Vehicle platforms need to be designed considering the mechanical and electrical redundancies to ease scaling to L4/L5 in the future."
Forward-looking OEMs will aim to tap additional growth opportunities in the following ways:
- Actively investing in startups predominantly focused on autonomous software and service sectors.
- Differentiating themselves through superior safety and ADAS features.
- Introducing sensor platforms focused on sensor fusion and AI. This will help capture road data accurately and judiciously.
- Focusing on L2+ features deployment.
- Fostering cross-collaborations between OEMs and suppliers, resulting in lower development cost and improved solution scalability.