New report from Guidehouse Insights forecasts light-duty vehicle electrification
Guidehouse Insights has published a new report providing an outlook on light-duty (LD) EV sales and populations to 2030 and includes passenger cars and light trucks with the following powertrains: hybrid EV (HEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), battery EVs (BEVs), and FCVs.
According to the report, global sales of LD EVs grew by nearly one million vehicles from 2018 to 2019, for a sales growth of nearly 25%, and the continued success of the Tesla Model 3 aided in advancing overall growth. This success, coupled with strong HEV sales growth, led to positive growth in the EV market in 2019, though the report adds that some areas of the market have slowed, such as plug-in EV (PEV) sales in North America.
In 2020, the introduction of several new SUV and crossover PEV models in North America, as well as additional 48-V mild-hybrid vehicles coming to market in Europe, is expected to propel growth. The report also states that the electric pickup truck market is expected to continue increasing PEV sales in North America as these models come to market in 2021 and beyond.
Looking into the future, continuous improvements to vehicle technology economics are anticipated to propel sales growth. These improvements include battery innovations and government transportation policies that incentivize adoption of low emission vehicles and low carbon fuels. Growing interest in carbon pricing and increased charging infrastructure investments are expected to also improve PEV economics.
Despite positive sales growth, the report finds that challenges remain for the EV market. A lack of consumer awareness and a need for more charging infrastructure are significant barriers for light-duty vehicle (LDV) electrification. Although awareness is increasing, consumers remain largely unaware of charging and powertrain technologies, the costs associated with EVs, and availability of incentives. The charging infrastructure barrier is likely to erode with the natural cycle of technological development and concerted efforts by stakeholders such as governments, automakers, and energy providers to move the market toward lower emissions transportation.
The report created forecasts based on three scenarios distinguished by varying assumptions (conservative, base, and aggressive) regarding future vehicle component costs, government incentives, and vehicle availability.
The report states that by 2030, annual EV sales are estimated to account for more than 21% of global LDV sales in the base scenario for this report. This penetration produces a global EV population of 171 million by 2030. Under the conservative scenario, EV sales are expected to account for 18% of global LDV sales and bring the EV population to more than 153 million. In the aggressive scenario, EVs account for 33% of global LDV sales and an EV population of more than 232 million. In the base scenario, PEVs are expected to account for more than 80% of EV sales, up from 45% in 2018. China, Europe, and North America are expected to maintain leadership in EV sales growth across the forecast period, while other regions are expected to see much less significant EV sales growth.