Report: Autonomous driving to create $7 trillion economy
Intel Corporation is predicting an “explosive economic trajectory growing from $800 billion in 2035 to $7 trillion by 2050,” as autonomous vehicles shift people from drivers to passengers. The study, prepared by analyst firm Strategy Analytics, is called “Accelerating the Future: The Economic Impact of the Emerging Passenger Economy,” and predicts autonomous driving will usher in a new business model, a “Passenger Economy.”
“Companies should start thinking about their autonomous strategy now,” said Intel CEO Brian Krzanich. “Less than a decade ago, no one was talking about the potential of a soon-to-emerge app or sharing economy because no one saw it coming. This is why we started the conversation around the Passenger Economy early, to wake people up to the opportunity streams that will emerge when cars become the most powerful mobile data generating devices we use and people swap driving for riding.”
According to the study, this Passenger Economy will be enabled by autonomous driving and smart city technologies by gradually reconfiguring entire industries and inventing new ones thanks to the time and cognitive surplus it will unlock.
“Autonomous technology will drive change across a range of industries and define a new landscape, the first green shoots of which will appear in the business-to-business sector,” said study co-author Harvey Cohen, president, Strategy Analytics. “The emergence of pilotless vehicle options will first appear in developed markets and will reinvent the package delivery and long-haul transportation sectors. This will relieve driver shortages around the world and account for two-thirds of initial projected revenues.”
The research firm also pointed out that autonomously operated vehicle commercialization will gain steam by 2040—generating an increasingly large share of the projected value and heralding the emergence of instantaneously personalized services.